Sri Lanka vs Pakistan: Twenty overs in Pallekele on Saturday, 28th February 2026, will decide Pakistan’s tournament life. The Men in Green face an already-eliminated Sri Lanka in their final Super Eights match. They need a massive win to leapfrog New Zealand into second place in Group 2. England’s victory over New Zealand on Friday gave them a chance. Now Pakistan must take full advantage of it.
With three points and a net run rate of +1.390, New Zealand sit well ahead of Pakistan’s single point and -0.461 NRR. The math is simple but tough. Pakistan must win by at least 64 runs when batting first. If they bowl first, they must chase the target in 13.1 overs or less. Five scorelines get them through. One falls painfully short.
Sri Lanka vs Pakistan: 5 Exact Scorelines That Send Pakistan to the T20 World Cup Semis And the One That Doesn’t
The Winning Scenarios
Scoreline 1 — Pakistan 195/4 beat Sri Lanka 128/9 (by 67 runs).
Pakistan set a big total. The bowlers stay sharp. The final margin clears the 64-run mark easily. Pakistan qualifies.
Scoreline 2 — Pakistan 180/6 beat Sri Lanka 116/8 (by 64 runs).
This is the smallest possible margin if Pakistan bat first. Every run matters here. A single dot ball or extra in the field could change everything. 64 runs is exactly what they need.
Scoreline 3 — Pakistan chase 170 in 12.4 overs.
Sri Lanka sets a decent score. However, Pakistan’s openers go after the bowling immediately. They hit the target with 44 balls left. This result stays well within the 13.1-over limit.
Scoreline 4 — Pakistan chase 155 in 11.2 overs.
Sri Lanka finished with a lower total. Pakistan attacks from the start and finishes the game early. This creates a massive run rate jump to pass New Zealand.
Scoreline 5 — Pakistan 210/3 beat Sri Lanka 140/7 (by 70 runs).
Sahibzada Farhan has 283 runs at a 158 strike rate in this tournament. He and Fakhar Zaman power the innings. Pakistan plays their best cricket and wins convincingly.
The Heartbreaker
The scoreline that eliminates them — Pakistan 185/5 beat Sri Lanka 122/9 (by 63 runs).
They miss by one run. The NRR gap stays in New Zealand’s favour. Pakistan finished on three points but lost the tiebreaker. Mitchell Santner’s side moves on instead.
The Bottom Line
Pakistan’s batting has lacked consistency throughout this tournament. This makes the required margin look very difficult. Even so, the path is clear. Sri Lanka are already out of the race. Pakistan still have the talent to deliver a big performance when it matters most.
