T20 World Cup 2022 Group 2 Scenarios: Can Pakistan Still Reach Semi-Final? What Happens If India Lose To Zimbabwe?
It has all come down to the last day of the Super 12 to determine the two semi-finalists from Group 2. All the six teams will be in action on super Sunday, and five of the six teams in Group 2 stand a possibility of qualifying for the semi-final and only the Netherlands are eliminated from this group in the semis race.
From Group 1, New Zealand became the first team to seal their place in the semi-final on Friday, and on Saturday, England defeated Sri Lanka to join New Zealand.
This is the points table of Group 2:
These are the remaining three matches in Group 2:
South Africa vs Netherlands, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide 5.30 AM IST/ 10:30 AM LOCAL
Pakistan vs Bangladesh, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide, 9:30 AM IST/ 2:30 PM LOCAL
India vs Zimbabwe, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne, 1.30 PM IST/ 7:00 PM LOCAL
What are the Group 2 qualification scenarios for each team?
India have a simple equation in front of them: defeat Zimbabwe and reach the semi-final as the toppers of Group 2. Even if India’s game is washed out, they will finish at 7 points - out of reach of Pakistan and Bangladesh - so they will qualify for semis in that case too.
However, if India lose to Zimbabwe, then there are two ways India can still qualify: one, if South Africa lose to Netherlands, or two, if Bangladesh beat Pakistan and still finish below India on NRR. If India lost to Zimbabwe and Pakistan defeats Bangladesh and assuming South Africa defeats Netherlands, then Pakistan and South Africa will qualify and India will be eliminated.
India play last on Sunday, so they will know what is required.
If SA defeat Netherlands they reach the semis. South Africa can’t afford a washout either, because then they will end up with 6 points, then they will finish below the winner of the Pakistan-Bangladesh game (assuming it doesn’t gets washed out), as the winner there will have more wins.
A rule which not many fans would know: if two teams tie on points, then the number of wins are considered, only then if the wins are also same, then NRR gets involved. So basically, South Africa need to win. The good news for them is that no rain is forecasted in Adelaide on Sunday.
Can Pakistan still qualify for semis?
Yes. But with help from others. They need to beat Bangladesh and pray that at least one of India and South Africa lose their match.
Pakistan has a superior NRR to India, so if Zimbabwe defeats India and Pakistan win over Bangladesh, Pakistan will qualify. Or, if SA either lose to Netherlands or their game gets washed out then Pakistan, if they beat Bangladesh, will qualify.
Bangladesh has a poor NRR, so it’s almost impossible for them to go past India’s NRR even if they defeat Pakistan by a significant margin and India lose to Zimbabwe. According to ESPNcricinfo, for Bangladesh to go over India in the points table, “the sum of the margins of the results of those two games - Bangladesh beating Pakistan and Zimbabwe beating India - will have to exceed 150 runs.”
Bangladesh’s only way to reach the semis is to beat Pakistan and then hope that South Africa either lose to Netherlands or their game gets washed out.
Mathematically, Zimbabwe are also in contention for a semi-final spot with 3 points in 4 matches. If they beat India, they can get to five points and tie with Pakistan, Bangladesh if their game is washed out and South Africa if they lose their last game to the Netherlands.
But their NRR of -0.313 is very low. Even if they beat India by 50 runs, they will need South Africa to lose to Netherlands by a similar margin, to go over South Africa’s NRR.