IPL 2023 Playoffs Qualification Scenario: Probability Percentage Explained

The IPL 2023 is into its last week of the league phase and the playoff race remains tight between a number of teams.

With only 4 days of the league phase remaining, only 1 team – Gujarat Titans – has qualified for the playoffs – GT have also secured a top 2 spot – while two teams at the bottom – Delhi Capitals and Sunrisers Hyderabad – have been eliminated.

The other seven teams are still in contention for 3 spots in the top 4 and four teams are in contention for the remaining one spot in the top 2

Here is how the points table looks after Match 64 on May 17:

IPL 2023

IPL 2023 points table

Here is the percentage chance of each of the remaining 7 teams to qualify for playoffs of IPL 2023:

Chennai Super Kings – 95.3% and Lucknow Super Giants – 95.3%.

Chennai Super Kings and Lucknow Super Giants both have 15 points in 13 matches. A win in their last game for both will seal both of their playoff spots. A loss for RCB against SRH will also help both these teams finish in the top 4.

Mumbai Indians – 6.9%

Mumbai Indians have 14 points in 13 matches and can reach 16 points, but their NRR is much worse compared to RCB who can also reach 16 points. Both MI and RCB can qualify should they reach 16 points and one of CSK or LSG lose their last game.

Royal Challengers Bangalore – 30.7%

RCB will play SRH today for their 13th game of the IPL 2023 season and they have 12 points. So they can reach 16 points at the maximum, which, given their healthy NRR, could see them through to the playoffs.

Rajasthan Royals – 6.3%, Punjab Kings – 6.3%, and KKR – 5.2%

RR, KKR, and PBKS all three have 12 points in 13 matches. Only two of them can reach 14 points as PBKS face RR next. But even then they can be eliminated if MI and RCB or one of them also reach 16 points. RR, KKR, and PBKS need to win their last game and pray for a number of other results to go their way.