The road to the World Test Championship (WTC) 2025 final has been fraught with unexpected challenges for Team India. After a crushing 3-0 series defeat at home against New Zealand and a hard-fought 1-1 draw in the opening Border-Gavaskar Trophy (BGT) Test in Australia, India’s campaign to reach their third consecutive WTC final seemed on the brink. However, with the series still alive and several Tests remaining, the path to qualification, while narrow, remains open. Here’s how India can secure a spot in the final showdown at Lord’s in June 2025.
Win BGT 4-1 or 3-1 – India Qualifies Directly:
The most straightforward path for India is to clinch the BGT by winning four or three of the remaining five Tests. A 4-1 or 3-1 series result would place India in an enviable position in the WTC points table, with a high enough points percentage (PCT) to guarantee a top-two finish without relying on other results. This scenario would also see Australia, who are currently in contention, fall behind in the standings unless they manage an improbable clean sweep in their future series.
Win BGT 3-2 – Conditional Qualification:
Should India manage a 3-2 win over Australia, they would still need Sri Lanka to perform against Australia in their two-match series. Specifically, if Sri Lanka can win at least one Test against Australia, India’s PCT would remain competitive enough to edge out other contenders, particularly if South Africa and New Zealand don’t secure all their remaining matches.
A Series Draw at 2-2 – Leaning on Sri Lanka:
If the BGT ends in a 2-2 stalemate, India’s qualification would become highly dependent on Sri Lanka’s performance against Australia. Here, India would require Sri Lanka to defeat Australia 2-0 to ensure that Australia’s PCT drops below India’s, even if marginally, securing India’s spot in the final.
Losing BGT 2-3 – A Complex Web of Results:
The most challenging scenario arises if India loses the series 2-3 to Australia. In this case, India’s qualification would hinge on multiple external results: Pakistan would need to beat South Africa 2-0 in their upcoming Test series, and Australia must win at least one Test against Sri Lanka. These results would create a PCT scenario where India could still squeak through to the final, but it would require a near-perfect alignment of outcomes.
Despite the setbacks, India’s next Test on December 14th at the Gabba is now a must-win, especially after South Africa’s 2-2 series result against Sri Lanka, which has kept the WTC points table fluid. India’s journey is a testament to the unpredictability and excitement of Test cricket, where every match can significantly alter the course of a team’s championship aspirations.
The path to the WTC 2025 final for India is fraught with ifs and buts, the essence of sports lies in the possibility of the improbable. With strategic wins and a bit of luck in other series, India can still weave through the complexities of the WTC standings to make it to Lord’s. The upcoming Gabba Test is not just another match; it’s a pivotal moment where India could either reignite their campaign or see their hopes further dwindle. Every ball bowled from now on will be crucial for Team India to script another chapter in their rich cricketing history.
